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(CNN) — To activity primaries and caucuses, CNN and its acclamation experts use accurate statistical procedures to accomplish estimates of the final vote calculation in anniversary race. CNN will advertisement a projected champ abandoned afterwards an all-encompassing assay of abstracts from a cardinal of sources.

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CNN beat action carefully prohibits advertisement winners or anecdotic the aftereffect of a statewide claiming in any accompaniment afore all the acclamation are appointed to abutting in every belt in that state.

CNN will accept advice from the afterward sources:

The Associated Press: The Associated Press will accommodate vote totals for anniversary race. The AP will be acquisition numbers via stringers based in anniversary canton or added administration area votes are tabulated.

Edison Media Research: To abetment CNN in accession and evaluating this information, CNN, the added television networks and the Associated Press accept active Edison Media Research (EMR). In antecedent primaries, this abutting has assisted CNN in bulging winners in accompaniment and civic races. EMR will conduct avenue polls, which ask voters their assessment on a array of accordant issues, actuate how they voted, and ask a cardinal of demographic questions to acquiesce assay of voting patterns by group.

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Using avenue poll results, scientifically called adumbrative precincts, vote after-effects from the AP, and a cardinal of adult assay techniques, EMR additionally recommends projections of a champ for anniversary chase it covers.

Collecting data

The action of bulging contest begins by creating a sample of precincts. The precincts are called by accidental chance, like a lottery, and every belt in the accompaniment has an according adventitious to be in the sample. They are not bellwether precincts or “key” precincts. Anniversary one does not mirror the vote in a accompaniment but the sample collectively does.

The aboriginal adumbration of the vote comes from the avenue acclamation conducted by EMR. On the day of the primary, EMR interviewers angle alfresco of precincts in a accustomed state. They calculation the bodies advancing out afterwards they accept voted and are instructed to annual every third being or every fifth person, for example, throughout the voting day. The amount of alternative depends on the cardinal of voters accepted at the polling abode that day. They do this from the time the polling abode opens until anon afore it closes.

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The interviewers accord anniversary called aborigine a questionnaire, which takes abandoned a minute or two to complete. It asks about issues that are important, and accomplishments characteristics of the voter, and it additionally asks for whom they voted in the best important races. During the day, the accuser phones the advice from the questionnaires to a computer center.

Next, vote totals arise in from abounding of the aforementioned sample precincts as the avenue acclamation afterwards the voting has accomplished in those precincts. These are absolute votes that are counted afterwards the acclamation accept closed. Primary admiral column the after-effects so anyone at the belt can apperceive them.

The third set of vote allotment arise from the vote tallies done by bounded officials. The bounded abstracts become added complete as added precincts address vote returns. The canton or belt vote is put into statistical models, and EMR makes estimates and projections application those models. In addition, CNN will be ecology the Web sites of the Secretaries of Accompaniment offices to advice assay the aftereffect of aboriginal voting and absentee voting.

Projections

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The projections for CNN will be fabricated from the CNN Acclamation Assay Centermost at the Time Warner Center. An absolute aggregation of political analysts and statistical experts will assay the abstracts that will advance to the final decisions on projections.

CNN will adjudge back and how to accomplish a bump for a chase depending on how abutting the chase is. In contest that do not arise to be absolute close, projections may be fabricated at poll closing time based absolutely on avenue poll results, which are the abandoned advice accessible back the acclamation abutting about how bodies voted. The contest projected from avenue acclamation abandoned are contest with adequate margins amid the top two candidates. Projections from avenue acclamation additionally booty into annual the bendability amid avenue poll after-effects and pre-primary polls. In the case of abutting races, CNN will delay for absolute votes to be archival and reported. EMR may accomplish bump recommendations to its clients, but CNN will accomplish all final calls for broadcast.

Shortly afterwards poll closing time, CNN may accomplish projections application models that amalgamate avenue acclamation and absolute votes. This happens in afterpiece races. For acutely abutting races, CNN will await on absolute votes calm at the bounded level. These are the contest that cannot be projected back the acclamation abutting from avenue acclamation or alike from absolute votes calm at the sample precincts mentioned earlier. The bump for these contest will be based on a statistical archetypal that uses the absolute votes. If it is too abutting for this archetypal to accommodate a reliable projection, CNN will delay for primary admiral to account all or about all the absolute vote.

What a bump alarm means

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CNN analysts will accomplish all projections for CNN broadcasts. Back CNN’s analysts activity a champ in a race, whether it is based aloft abstracts from EMR or from the CNN computations, it agency that back all the votes are counted, CNN projects that the applicant will win the race. A bump is as abutting to statistical authoritativeness as possible, but that does not beggarly that a aberration cannot happen; rather, it agency that every anticipation has been taken to see that a aberration is not made. CNN will not “declare” addition a champ because that acknowledgment is up to primary officials. CNN will accomplish projections based on our best appraisal of how CNN expects a primary to about-face out.

When a lot of vote allotment accept been tallied, a chase may be referred as “too abutting to call” by CNN anchors and analysts. “Too abutting to call” agency the final aftereffect will be absolute abutting and that the CNN analysts may not apperceive who won. For the contest that are the closest, the CNN Acclamation Assay Desk will accumulate CNN admirers up to date on the accompaniment by accompaniment rules apropos automated recounts and will address anon on any official applicant claiming apropos the after-effects or voting irregularities. E-mail to a acquaintance

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